Navigating Uncertainty with FutureCasting

The first step in preparing for the future is knowing your environment. You can do this through a variety of research methods, from stakeholder interviews and competitive intelligence to deeper primary / secondary research (supplemented by customer research in Phase 2).
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As you gather your data, it is important to structure it in an actionable way by separating out the facts from the assumptions. The Uncertainty Matrix is a powerful tool to do just that, as it divides your knowledge into four distinct categories:
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• Known Knowns: What are you pretty sure about? Now, how much of what is “known” is based on historical pattern and faith rather than contemporary data? What might you pressure-test? Are there big dependencies on certain factors which should be called into question, given how much has changed in the last year?

• Unknown Knowns: What knowledge may lurk elsewhere in your organization that might provide real-time information on the market? What are front-line staff seeing with regards to customer behavior and support needs, for example? What might suppliers tell you about how competitors in your industry are acting?

• Known Unknowns: What are you sure you don’t know? Be comprehensive, breaking your uncertainties into fields such as economics, customer behavior, new business models, and more.

• Unknown Unknowns: This quadrant can feel the emptiest, but it is often the most important. What factors might swamp other considerations? How might your context change in ways that upend large swathes of assumptions? This is where scenarios will be especially useful later in the process.