The shock of Donald Trump’s upset win is settling in, and we look forward to innumerable post-mortems on how forecast models went astray. The assumption is that next time we’ll have more precise predictions.
But what if that faith is misplaced? After all, missing forecasts happens all the time in the private sector, whether companies end up with a runaway hit or a total bust. What can we learn from Trump’s stunner that won’t just tweak our prediction models, but cause us to fundamentally re-think them?
Story by Steve Wunker.
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